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Demographics Now and Then
18 сент., 01:15
The demographic transition of Bolivia (one of last countries in Latam to fall below replacement) was astonishingly rapid. Before COVID they were way above replacement(2.6+)even being above 3.0 TFR as recently as 2012. To be at 1.56 today (lower than the USA!) is remarkable.Of course Bolivia is far from alone in this recent plunge. Guatemala, Paraguay, & Honduras are now all well below replacement as well. To be honest even the last holdout Nicaragua is probably below replacement in 2026…Was in Bolivia just a few years ago. It absolutely felt like a country undergoing a dramatic demographic transition. Especially in the big cities like Santa Cruz de la Sierra.https://x.com/jesusferna7026/status/2100571020943818901X (formerly Twitter)Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (@JesusFerna7026) on XIs Bolivia’s total fertility rate below the U.S. rate? In a new data release, the National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia reports the country’s total fertility rate at 1.56 in 2026. The U.S. …Demographics Now and Then
17 сент., 20:56
Costa Rica reaching demographic point of no return. Births are just above half of their highs in the 1980s.Currently the country has a TFR of just 1.12, the same level as Spain and Japan.This is the new norm in Latam btw.Colombia ~1.0, Mexico ~1.4, Argentina ~1.25, Chile ~1.1
Demographics Now and Then
16 сент., 12:31
Cases of Fiji, Latvia, Kazakhstan, Estonia, Malaysia, Kyrgyzstan clearly show that even catastrophic levels of ethnic replacement are reversible. Kyrgyzstan dropped to only 40% Kyrgyz in 1959 & is over 77% today. Kazakhstan similar turnaround. History shows us it’s never over.https://x.com/cornu__copia/status/2099782859884036582X (formerly Twitter)Tantric TuranistThe region of North Kazakstan was only 13% ethnic Kazakh in 1959, 23% in 1989. Now the proportion of unmixed Kazakh births is close to an absolute majority again for the first time since the late …Demographics Now and Then
14 сент., 12:43
Ho Chi Minh City/Saigon has long been the low TFR drag of Vietnam. Even when Vietnam had a TFR of 2.0+ they were around 1.4. It’s simply amazing Vietnam kept its TFR so healthy for so long. Still being above 1.9 in 2025 was remarkable.https://x.com/andyd10/status/2098368354054525258X (formerly Twitter)andyd (@andyd10) on XWow!!!! In the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh City birth rate is only 5 (even in Poland is 6) Ho Chi Minh City - pop.13,803,797, births 36,103 (H1 2026), birth rate 5.23/1,000 (in Poland 6.4/1,000) https…Demographics Now and Then
14 сент., 12:42
Sardinia really is the Canary Islands of Italy fertility rate wise. Below 1.0 since 2020. Almost as bad as the Canaries which have been below 0.90 since 2021 & are the fertility anchor/drag of Spain as Sardinia is for Italy..The Canary Islands themselves have a population pyramid similar to South Korea or Taiwan
Demographics Now and Then
14 сент., 12:40
Indeed increasing childlessness is the critical factor in plummeting fertility. However, reversing it is the most difficult. Governments have had much more success getting those w/kids to have more. I’m not suprised at all that in some countries mothers having more kids even as childlessness increases.https://x.com/devonzuegel/status/2055702296013500903X (formerly Twitter)DevonWomen who end up having kids are having a similar number of kids as mothers 20 years ago (and in the US, actually slightly more kids!) But the proportion of women who have any children has fallen…Demographics Now and Then
11 сент., 00:13
So Houthi controlled Yemen has around 25,000,000 people(best guess), TFR btwn 3.8-4.3, & more births than Japan or Germany at ~750,000 a year. It also has a median age of 19 (compare that to ~42 in Ukraine or Russia). Infant mortality rate of 34 per 1,000 births terrible though.
Demographics Now and Then
9 сент., 09:59
Former Democratic Republic of Germany (DDR aka East Germany) saw its fertility rate fall to below 1.0 for half of the 1990s. Their last comeback cohort (born from 1977-1987) moved to the Western parts of Germany in massive numbers from the 1990s-2010s hollowing out the East.
Demographics Now and Then
8 сент., 00:22изменён
🇺🇸 📉 🍼Demographic data on births and fertility over the last several years makes clear that Non Hispanic Black fertility is cratering to historic levels in the United States. In fact, Black Americans may have the lowest fertility rate of any major group in the U.S. by 2030 (including Asians).There is no indication of a Black American fertility floor and the fact that up to 50% of Black American women may remain childless based on current data for women aged 18-44 makes a TFR of ~1.0 a likely future level. That is almost as low as that of China.Demographics Now and Then
7 сент., 22:45
India puts their population at 1,479,239,020 as of September 4th 2026.
Demographics Now and Then
7 сент., 00:41
For any chance of long term demographic semi stabilization Russia obviously needs to nourish its comeback cohort to prevent emigration. They’re RU's only real shot at getting births back to 1,500,000 annually from today’s levels of sub 1,200,000. But this is highly uncertain.Demographics Now and Then
4 сент., 08:46
By 2060, the global population will feature nearly three times as many seniors as young children. The demographic cross already happened in 2023,making the trajectory almost locked in for many countries. The situation to be far more dire in Italy, South Korea, Chile, Poland etc.
Demographics Now and Then
2 сент., 17:03
By 2030 the United States, Canada, & Chile are all likely to join the natural decline club. Seeing more births than deaths annually. The Americas roared into this demographic transition of late. Colombia, Argentina, Brazil & many others may see similar decline by 2040.Demographics Now and Then
1 сент., 23:25
Even taking into account the massive fall in Mormon fertility of late, Children per Mother level in Utah surprised me. North Dakota, South Dakota, & Iowa higher (& Nebraska level with Utah). Genuinely stunned.Also Utah homes are amongst the largest in the United States but home prices are above the national median. That being said 60% of Utahns are Mormons & the massive cultural change in that community is likely a primary driver of both the State’s plummeting fertility and CPM.https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2094503511153054188?s=46X (formerly Twitter)Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) on XDecomposition of the TFR into the number of Children per Mother and the Total Maternal Rate for each US state. Family sizes tend to be the highest in the Midwestern US. In the Dakotas they are at …Demographics Now and Then
28 авг., 20:48
Since 2024, average housing unit size in Canada has fallen to 719 square feet & 81% of new builds are apartments. This does not bode well for family formation & size does matter. This is the problem with an economy that builds units for institutional investors not for families.We don't have to guess how this dynamic ends because we can look directly at 1-2 bedroom apartment dense Taiwan & South Korea. Also,data published by IFS shows women living in 1-2 bedroom apartments average TFR of ~1.20-1.35 matching ultra-low levels seen in Canada itself today.
Demographics Now and Then
28 авг., 01:06изменён
Was interesting to hear some of the protesters in Albania’s Flamingo Movement were holding up signs saying “we want our children back”as protest against mass emigration stemming from the failure of their government & economy to provide jobs. Mass emigration as destructive as low TFR.We have seen it in Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Latvia, Armenia, Lithuania etc. In most of these countries the combination of high emigration & low TFR destroyed the demographic structure and led to rapid population decline.
Demographics Now and Then
22 авг., 15:52
🇻🇳 🇮🇩 👶 ☀️ Both Vietnam & Indonesia to be enormously consequential in Asia in decades to come. Both holding TFR above 1.8 level & while Indonesia is likely to crash first if they hold above 1.5 until 2040(a huge ask)they’ll be in far better demographic+economic shape than almost all peers.Demographics Now and Then
15 авг., 06:23
Guatemala, El Salvador, & Honduras (& likely now Nicaragua too) are all below replacement fertility yet are still significant migration sending countries to both the US & sub 1.5 TFR Mexico. They seem destined to demographically hollow out faster than Eastern Europe did.
Demographics Now and Then
12 авг., 06:06
🇵🇱 👶 Poland has achieved a modern economic miracle, rising to become EU’s 6th largest economy, but there may be few left to inherit it. TFR has shrunk to just ~1.05 meaning that by 2050 a shrinking workforce faces a brutal dependency ratio supporting a massive retirement wave.Demographics Now and Then
12 авг., 06:06
This is a gigantic demographic event and will potentially answer many questions. Most important of all whether the population of the Democratic Republic of Congo is closer to 100 million or 125 million people.
