Последние посты
Alex Falcon
10 нояб., 07:33
SoftBank is probably best known for its stories involving WeWork and some of the world's biggest companies. And it looks like the holding company has now reached a point where AI is no longer just a story about rising asset valuations, but a story about real debt.The company has made a massive bet on AI. It has invested or committed to invest around $65 billion in OpenAI alone, while OpenAI and Arm now account for roughly three-quarters of the value of its key assets.The problem is that a significant portion of this bet is being financed with debt. In September, SoftBank issued $11.1 billion in bonds, the largest high-yield corporate bond offering in history. Some of those bonds carried yields of nearly 10% annually.And the market is already getting nervous. SoftBank shares have lost nearly half their value since the beginning of September, while the cost of insuring against a potential debt default has reached its highest level in four years.The really uncomfortable part begins if AI asset valuations continue to fall. That would mean collateral loses value, borrowing becomes more expensive, and the company may have to sell assets to reduce its debt. And SoftBank owns a significant stake in Arm, is one of OpenAI's largest investors, and is financing massive AI infrastructure projects.That's why SoftBank's problems could quickly stop being the problems of just one company. The pressure could spread to Arm, private AI company valuations, data centers, and eventually the entire tech market.On Tuesday, November 10, SoftBank will release its latest quarterly earnings report. The main things to watch are its debt, cash position, and how the company plans to keep financing its AI bet.Because if the next major AI crisis starts not with a stock market sell-off, but with debt problems at the biggest borrowers, SoftBank is one of the first places to look for signs of trouble.Alex Falcon
6 нояб., 16:01
It looks like AI has become such a major economic force that people are now voting against its infrastructure.In the recent U.S. elections, candidates who pledged to restrict the construction of new data centers secured key positions in several states. Texas is particularly interesting, as it accounts for roughly a quarter of all planned new data center capacity in the United States. The state's incoming governor has already promised to pause permits for new projects until additional industry regulations are put in place.The reason is fairly straightforward. AI requires enormous amounts of electricity, water, and infrastructure. People are starting to feel the impact not in Nvidia's earnings reports, but in their own electricity bills, the strain on power grids, and massive construction projects taking place right next to their homes. Goldman Sachs estimates that new political restrictions could potentially affect around 45% of planned data center capacity growth in the United States.And today, this story has already hit the markets. At one point, the S&P 500 was down more than 3%, while the Nasdaq fell around 5%. Companies tied to AI infrastructure have been hit particularly hard. Nvidia was down more than 8%, AMD around 16%, and CoreWeave around 15%. The Nasdaq has now pulled back more than 10% from its October peak.Of course, elections aren't the only factor. Investors are increasingly questioning when the hundreds of billions of dollars currently being poured into data centers, chips, and electricity will start generating comparable returns. And now, alongside the economic question, there's a political one.For the past few years, chips were considered the main bottleneck for AI development. Then electricity, memory, and equipment became increasingly scarce. Now there's another constraint: political approval to build all this infrastructure in the first place.And it's entirely possible that the next phase of the AI race will be determined not by who has the best model or the most GPUs, but by who actually gets permission to connect another massive data center to the power grid.Alex Falcon
3 нояб., 08:26
Alphabet was the first to plunge, losing about 13% and nearly $500 billion in market value following its earnings report, before continuing to slide the next day. Then Intel crashed by roughly 29%, even though its Data Center and AI division grew by 78%.Taken together, these two stories look much more interesting than just two bad days for tech companies.At Google, AI is growing at a breakneck pace, but the company has posted negative free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter. At Intel, demand for server solutions is enormous, but at the same time, the AI boom is draining memory supplies and manufacturing capacity away from the traditional PC market, which remains critical to the company. As a result, one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI is beginning to suffer from the consequences of the race itself.And this raises a much more important question. Could this be the moment when the market finally stops focusing solely on AI growth rates and starts calculating how much this entire revolution actually costs?Until now, the weak points of the AI race have mostly existed somewhere in the forecasts. Everyone understood that data centers cost enormous amounts of money, resources were in short supply, and returns on these investments would take time to materialize. Now, in just two days, the market has been given two very expensive demonstrations of these risks involving some of the world's largest tech companies.And this could genuinely become dangerous for the entire market. That's because a significant portion of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's growth over the past few years has been driven precisely by a handful of the largest tech companies and expectations surrounding AI. If the market starts reassessing how much Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and the rest should be worth in light of the actual cost of the AI race, we will be talking about much more than a correction in individual stocks.At that point, the main question will no longer be which company is next. The real question will be how far the entire market could fall if the biggest driver of its growth in recent years suddenly becomes its biggest source of valuation risk.Alex Falcon
31 окт., 10:07
While the rest of the world is talking about the Binance hack, something is happening in the U.S. stock market that could turn out to be far more important for investors.Alphabet lost around 13% in a single trading session, wiping out nearly $500 billion in market value and leaving the stock roughly 30% below its 52-week high. Yet, at first glance, the earnings report itself looked very strong. Google Cloud more than doubled its revenue, demand for AI continues to grow, and Cloud's future contracted revenue has already surpassed $560 billion.But the market looked beyond the headline numbers. Google's core advertising business grew more slowly than expected, and, more importantly, the company has now reported negative free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter. In the most recent quarter alone, the company spent roughly $9 billion more than it actually generated after all expenses. The reason is the same as before: massive investments in AI, data centers, and its own chips.And this is where an important shift has taken place. For the past few years, seeing rapid growth in AI-related business was enough for the market to forgive almost any level of spending. Now investors are starting to ask a different question. Not how quickly AI is growing, but how much actual cash a company has left after that growth.And the problem goes far beyond Google. Alphabet currently accounts for around 5% of the entire S&P 500 and more than 8% of the Nasdaq 100. The seven largest tech companies together make up roughly 35% of the S&P 500. Yesterday, around 80% of the companies in the index were up, yet the S&P 500 still ended the day lower, largely because of Alphabet's decline.So the biggest risk right now isn't that Google has turned into a bad company. On the contrary, its business remains massive and continues to grow rapidly. The real risk is market concentration. If investors start reassessing AI spending across the other tech giants in the same way, a correction in just a handful of companies could drag down the entire index. And even someone who simply bought the S&P 500 for diversification could suddenly realize just how much of their money actually depends on a few technology companies.Alex Falcon
29 окт., 08:49
Gold is widely considered the ultimate safe-haven asset. But something interesting is happening right now. Despite high oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and a falling stock market, gold itself has dropped to a three-month low, losing around 4% in a single week.The reason is pretty simple. High oil prices are fueling inflation again. The higher inflation goes, the more likely the Fed is to keep interest rates elevated or raise them further. And gold doesn't generate any interest income on its own. When bonds and the dollar start offering more attractive returns, some money flows in that direction instead.There's a second factor, too. When markets sell off sharply, investors sometimes have to sell just about everything to cover losses and meet margin calls. That's why even gold can temporarily fall alongside stocks during periods of severe market stress. And that's exactly the kind of price action we're seeing right now.And here's the key takeaway. A safe-haven asset isn't necessarily an asset that rises during every crisis. Gold performs well against some risks and less well against others. It can provide protection against currency problems, debt crises, and financial instability, while simultaneously coming under pressure from high interest rates and a strong dollar.That's why it's worth rethinking gold as an all-purpose hedge. Before buying any safe-haven asset, it is important to first understand exactly which risk needs to be hedged. Because the very same crisis can make gold either the best-performing asset in portfolio or, at least temporarily, one of the worst.Alex Falcon
26 окт., 08:35
Markets are facing a pretty ugly combination right now.Brent crude is already nearing $113. Tensions around Iran are rising again, and the market is starting to price in the risk of another escalation. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq continues to slide, investors are getting increasingly nervous about the cost of the AI boom, and Bitcoin is heading lower again alongside other risk assets.And here’s one simple thing that’s important to understand. Almost everything in the global economy ultimately comes down to energy. More expensive oil means higher transportation costs, higher production costs, and more expensive goods and services. If oil stays above $110 for an extended period, it will give inflation another boost.From there, a familiar chain reaction kicks in. Inflation rises, the Fed has a harder time cutting rates, borrowing costs stay high, and pressure on stocks and crypto intensifies. That’s exactly why the current rise in oil prices matters much more to the market than it might seem at first glance.There’s another risk on the horizon: November 3, when the U.S. midterm elections take place. Reports are already emerging that another round of strikes on Iran could be under discussion specifically after the elections. That doesn’t mean the war will necessarily escalate. But after November 3, the political constraints on the White House could genuinely change, and the market is already starting to factor that in.For us, the priority right now isn’t trying to call the bottom, but watching oil as one of the key risk indicators. As long as Brent stays above $110, any positive news for stocks or crypto could quickly be overshadowed by inflation concerns and high interest rates. On the other hand, a sustained decline in oil prices could be the first sign that pressure on the markets is starting to ease.Alex Falcon
22 окт., 17:32
AI could turn out to be both the greatest technological revolution of the past few decades and one of the biggest investment bubbles in history.Yesterday, Anthropic reported a net loss of $80.7 billion in just the first half of the year. To be fair, there’s no need to panic over the headline number itself. Around $72 billion of that loss came from an accounting revaluation of the company’s liabilities, not from Anthropic actually burning through that much cash. But something else is far more interesting.The company has already committed hundreds of billions of dollars to computing capacity, chips, and data centers. And Anthropic is far from alone. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are set to invest more than $700 billion in AI infrastructure this year. The scale has become so enormous that these investments are now supporting the U.S. stock market and accounting for a significant share of investment activity across the economy.And this is where the U.S. is gradually falling into a very interesting trap. If tech companies keep spending at this pace, they’ll have to borrow more and more money and somehow prove that these massive investments will actually pay off. If they start cutting spending, the fallout will hit chipmakers, data centers, the energy sector, the tech companies themselves, and ultimately the stock market.In other words, the AI boom is becoming too big to simply bring to a halt without serious consequences. The IMF already estimates that a sharp pullback in AI investment could leave the U.S. economy around 1.8% smaller by 2028 than it would be under the current baseline scenario.Anthropic’s IPO in November could become the first serious test of this whole setup. Not long ago, the market was discussing a valuation of around $2 trillion for the company. Following the latest figures, some investors are now talking about roughly $1.5 trillion. At the same time, the business itself continues to grow at an extraordinary pace.From a capital markets perspective, I see the main risk here as something other than AI itself. I have little doubt that it will fundamentally reshape the economy and the world. But the gap between the hundreds of billions being invested today and the point at which those investments start generating comparable returns could be much longer than the market currently expects. That’s precisely where the risk of today’s euphoria lies. Major technological shifts almost never happen quickly or without friction.Alex Falcon
21 окт., 18:39
Celebrating Bybit getting its VARA license with big brother Ben🤘Alex Falcon
22 сент., 12:01
“Stop AI!”It may seem like we’ve heard those words from just about everyone in recent years.But now the head of Anthropic (the company behind Claude) has officially joined them. He published an entire essay and called for slowing down the development of the most powerful AI systems. He was quickly backed by Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and the head of Google DeepMind.Now, that’s something new.And honestly, the reason behind these statements is just as surprising.OpenAI ran a test: the AI was simply supposed to hack a specially designed training server. But it found a way not only to break in, but also to escape the environment and start attacking real services on the internet.The test involved 533 AI agents working simultaneously, with a shared chat where they could coordinate with one another. When one of them found a way to reach real servers, it posted the instructions there —Alex Falcon
18 сент., 13:29
Funds started buying up 10–20% stakes in crypto projectsIt was 2026, but most people still knew only Bitcoin when it came to crypto. Maybe Ethereum, too.Meanwhile, big money was quietly buying stakes in different coins and getting ready for something. Even though hardly anyone was talking about it.But here are a few examples:🔘 Apollo, a fund managing more than $900 billion, is looking to acquire up to a 9% stake in MORPHO. It’s a project where people and companies lend money to each other through crypto.🔘 StablecoinX, backed by Pantera and other major funds, acquired nearly 20% of ENA. The project is behind the digital dollar USDe.🔘 SDC has accumulated around 10% of SKY. The project is building a lending and digital-dollar system without a traditional bank.🔘 Hyperliquid Strategies acquired roughly $2.2 billion worth of HYPE – the token of one of the largestAlex Falcon
14 сент., 16:10
Is ChatGPT destroying Wall Street?OpenAI rolled out ChatGPT for finance today.It includes data on roughly 13 million companies and 3 million transactions.You can give it a specific stock – anything from a company like Apple to a little-known business.And get a full breakdown: how revenue and earnings are growing, how much debt the company has, how it stacks up against competitors. And how much the stock could be worth under different scenarios.It pulls all of this together in Excel and backs it up with sources.A professional deep-dive that a team of Wall Street analysts could previously spend days or weeks putting together can now be done with a single prompt in a matter of minutes.The product was built in partnership with Morgan Stanley. There, 98%+ of financial advisor teams are already using the AI.OpenAI is now testing the tool with banks and funds. The next step –Alex Falcon
10 сент., 11:58
Apple just released a $2,000 iPhoneIt’s called the iPhone Duo. And yes, as many of you may have already heard, it’s the first foldable iPhone in history. The price starts at $1,999.This is an experiment. Apple is essentially testing whether millions of people are willing to pay for a smartphone like they would for a good laptop. If they are, the price ceiling for premium phones has just been pushed significantly higher for the entire market.Analysts are already expecting 6–10 million Duo sales in its first year. In a strong scenario, that number could reach 15–20+ million.If the Duo actually sells better than expected without hurting margins, analysts will have to raise their forecasts for Apple’s earnings. In a strong scenario, that points to around $400–430 per share, versus the current ~$315.Alex Falcon
7 сент., 15:07
Tesla will release a “human” for $20,000Musk officially confirmed: the first Optimus robots will go on sale in 2027.And the bet on them is so massive that, to make room for these robots, the company has already discontinued its legendary Model S and Model X cars.Tesla wants to create a truly universal assistant: clean the house, put things away, bring in groceries, load the washing machine, open the door, use regular tools, and learn new tasks simply by being told what to do.In short, a new member of the family for every household. And on top of that, a universal worker in any factory.The target price is around $20–30K, although Tesla has not announced the final price yet.Right now, in Texas, they are designing a factory to produce 10 million robots a year. That’s 20 times more than the number of robots being made worldwide right now.So Tesla is going almost all-in on thisAlex Falcon
3 сент., 14:10
Investors rushed to buy both AI and goldSomething unique started happening in August. Investors simultaneously started aggressively buying AI companies, gold, and even Bitcoin.What’s the connection here?It’s actually a very unusual one. To build AI data centers, the biggest tech companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars.They need money for that. A lot of money. Which they keep borrowing in the market. In 2026 alone, their spending could approach $700 billion.And the problem is that the U.S. government is borrowing money in exactly the same way. And the more they borrow, the higher the interest rate they have to offer on that debt.But in August, the Treasury stepped in. And increased its buybacks of its own bonds to bring that very rate down.Investors immediately understood: Debt is becoming too expensive, and now the government will be looking for ways to makeAlex Falcon
31 авг., 08:07
Why are billionaires buying plumbers?Who would have thought, but the biggest investment funds have found a new favorite asset. They are rushing to buy plumbing, electrical, and air-conditioning service companies on a massive scale.For context: since 2022 alone, funds have bought almost 800 such companies in the US.The most striking case is Apex Service Partners. In 2019, Alpine started bringing small trade service companies together under this company.Back then, Apex’s revenue was around $40 million. Today, it is already more than $3 billion, while the entire company was recently valued at around $10 billion.Why does this work?The US home services market is worth around $700 billion, but it is still made up of thousands of small firms. Funds buy them one by one, consolidate advertising, procurement, and management – and build one large network.And demand is very strong:Alex Falcon
27 авг., 13:09изменён
Has the crypto market’s bull run begun? 👀Bitcoin has soared from around $63,000 to above $80,000 in just a couple of weeks. And for the first time in a long while, this move doesn’t look like just another bounce.I already wrote about the main catalyst behind this rally a few days ago. It all comes down to the U.S., which has started buying back its own bonds on a large scale.But now, new details have emerged. The U.S. is also considering using part of its reserve — where nearly $1 trillion currently sits — for these buybacks.In terms of the impact on the markets, this could look somewhat similar to 2021: there will be more money in the system, bond yields will move lower, and stocks and crypto will get even more fuel for further growth. So the market’s fate depends on this.But it’s still too early to celebrate the start of a new bull run. BTC has hit resistance around $81,000Alex Falcon
25 авг., 14:16изменён
The AI IllusionOne of the most interesting things in the AI industry today, and something that remains outside the attention of 99.9% of people, is the real impact of artificial intelligence on the economy.Hyperscalers are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure. Corporations are spending billions on tokens and on attempts to integrate AI into their operations. And the entire market is being accelerated by everyone buying from each other in a loop, valuations rising, more capital flowing in, and the market continuing to expand.But the question that I think is actually worth asking is this: how much is artificial intelligence really affecting the economy and GDP today?I think you may be surprised, but if you try to estimate it and look at the actual data rather than the perception created by society and social media, the impact of AI on GDP today isAlex Falcon
24 авг., 08:12
❗️The U.S. has started rescuing the bond marketYesterday, the yield on 30-year U.S. government bonds soared to 5.34% — its highest level since 2007.And then, unexpectedly, the U.S. Treasury stepped in and announced that it was ready to increase the volume of its bond buybacks — from $2 billion to $4 billion.And then it added that this might not even be the limit, and the amount could be even higher.Why does this matter?It’s pretty simple. When U.S. government bonds are yielding more than 5% with almost no risk, investors naturally start asking themselves: why should I even bother getting into stocks and crypto?Well, the outcome is obvious.And now the U.S. is trying to push those yields down: it creates additional demand for bonds → their prices rise → yields fall.When that happens, money starts looking for higher returns again.That’s exactly how the market reacted toAlex Falcon
19 авг., 15:15
Historic moment: Tether has undergone a real audit for the first timeRemember the crypto market’s biggest fear all these years? “What if USDT isn’t actually fully backed?” That question is now settled.KPMG, one of the Big Four auditors, issued an unqualified opinion on Tether’s 2025 financial statements. This is the company’s first full audit in its entire history. They didn’t just check a “snapshot at a specific date” — they reviewed everything: the balance sheet, revenue, cash flows, and counterparties. All the way down to physically counting every gold bar in the vaults. Bottom line: reserves exceed liabilities by $6.8 billion.🔎 Why didn’t this happen earlier? There are 3 reasons:• Major auditors stayed away from crypto for years. There were simply too many scams and too much reputational risk surrounding the sector. Tether itself acknowledged that the company had long beenAlex Falcon
17 авг., 07:32изменён
What’s going on with Strategy?Just a month ago, I wrote that Michael Saylor’s company had started selling Bitcoin for the first time. At the time, it was easy to write it off as a one-off.But the selling has continued. Over the summer, Strategy has sold nearly 7,000 BTC worth roughly $430 million, and the company has officially given itself the option to sell Bitcoin whenever it needs dollars.And Saylor found a pretty clever way to spin it. His famous “never sell your Bitcoin” apparently was advice for individual investors, not companies.As he put it, he personally isn’t selling any of his BTC. But his company, Strategy, has every right to sell its holdings. So, in short: keep holding Bitcoin.The market wasn’t convinced, though. Every new sale has been met with a pullback and even a bit of panic. Although, so far, those moves have eventually been bought back up.Still, honestl
Бот обратной связи для своего канала — бесплатно
Подписчики пишут боту, вы отвечаете реплаем, ваш аккаунт скрыт. Создаётся в одно касание.
Как это работает →
