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infinityhedge
28 окт., 18:01изменён
FOMC STATEMENTFED REITERATES SEEKING 'TIMELY RETURN' TO 2% INFLATION GOALinfinityhedge
28 окт., 18:01изменён
FED: COOK AND HAMMACK DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKEinfinityhedge
28 окт., 18:00
FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGEDinfinityhedge
26 окт., 15:45
Anthropic ($ANT): S-1 Breakdown: INFINITYHEDGE- Val Floor: ~$1T (Series H priced @ $58.90/sh in June 2026; ~16.94B fully diluted shares) - Balance Sheet Cash (Jun 30, 2026): $131.65B cash & marketable securities (+$2.5B restricted cash & $15B senior secured credit line) - 7 co-founders each worth $14B control >55% effective voting power (50.1% Class F shares)- >11,900 customers spending >$100K/yr TTM - >1,900 customers spending >$1M/yr TTM | ~250 customers spending >$10M/yr TTM. - >90% of contributions to Ant’s codebase in Sep 2026 were written by Claude - No single customer represent >10% of revRisks, Dilution: - Public Benefit: Contributed 846.84M Class N shares (5% of fully diluted stock) to Ant Public Benefit Fund, LLC, PLUS Board authorization to issue up to an additional 2% of total shares every time the stock price +50% above the prior milestone: infinityhedge - All 7 co-founders also pledged 80% of personal equity to philanthropy. - Ant warn it will prioritize safety over commercial timelines.infinityhedge
26 окт., 10:04
THE WEEK AHEAD: BIGGEST WEEK OF THE QUARTER: INFINITYHEDGEMon: Anthropic to publicly file its S-1 investor prospectus [expected on mon or friday] China: Fifth plenary session of Chinese Communist Party Central Committee begins in Beijing. It continues until Thu. Top officials from Saudi Arabia [Defence Minister], Turkey and Pakistan are to meet Iran's leaders in Tehran: This meeting is intended to start negotiations for the purpose of achieving a mechanism for security per iran FM spoxTue: Israel election: Israelis head to the polls for the first parliamentary elections since the catastrophe of Hamas’s Oct 7 2023 attack. Many in the country regard this vote as the most important in Israel’s near 80y history. polls suggest that victory improbable for either side. Earnings: Robinhood, SK HynixWed: UK: Budget day BOC: interest rate announcement: expected to raise rates FED: interest rate announcement: expected to wait until the midterm elections next month (another pivot point) before raising rates again Apple holds a “Pro & tell” product launch event, with new Macs & an iPad mini expected Earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft [focus on capex]Thu: EU: interest rate announcement: No change expected US: PCE [hot], Q3 GDP advance estimate Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Merck, Eli Lilly, Reddit, Sandisk, Samsung, Shell, Coinbase, Blue OwlFri: Japan: interest rate announcement [No change expected], plus outlook report Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Eurozone Q3 GDP US: Q3 employment cost index Earnings: AstraZeneca, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobilSun: US: Daylight Saving Time endsTBA/Whole Week: - Wars: Iran, Houthis, Ukraine: recent Houthi attacks on Saudi infra pushed Brent to ~$116–117 (highest since Apr). Oil has eased a bit after Trump comments ruling out imminent Iran strikes and Tehran meeting w/ Mecca Pact countries, is the key de-escalation to watch but risk premium remains high after midterms. Ukraine continues in the bg: infinity hedge - AI: Anthropic S-1, Fable 5.5?, capex, hacks, Neoclouds vs Musk - US midterm elections: Republicans are expected to lose both house and the SenateViews: - "I think earnings will determine whether this ... tech pullback is a buying opportunity, or is there a deeper correction ahead,": Lip of BakerAvenue Wealth Management. - "There are a lot of balls in the air,": Giorgi of Alpine Macro.infinityhedge
1 окт., 07:40изменён
YIELDS ARE GOING PARABOLICU.S. 10Y YIELD HITS 5.34%, HIGHEST SINCE 2002U.S. 30Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 5.68%, HIGHEST SINCE 2002UK 30-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS TO 6% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 1998JAPAN 10Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 3.1%, HIGHEST SINCE 1996FRANCE 10Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 4.9%, HIGHEST SINCE 2002GERMANY 10Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 3.6%, HIGHEST SINCE 2009: INFINITYHEDGEBRENT OIL ABOVE $100/BBLinfinityhedge
21 сент., 11:32
HYPERLIQUID SURPASSES NASDAQ AND LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE IN MARKET VALUATION - INFINITYHEDGEinfinityhedge
16 сент., 19:31
It's time?(Trump: "Fed making a mistake because I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.........So far, I’m not even a little bit happy with my selection of (warsh). Not even a little bit. And I’m not blaming anybody, but I’m just....)infinityhedge
16 сент., 18:03изменён
FED DOT PLOT:FED: 16 OFFICIALS PROJECT AT LEAST ONE MORE RATE HIKE IN 2026FED OFFICIALS SEE DEC 26, DEC 27 UNEMPLOYMENT OF 4.1%, VERSUS 4.3% PREVIOUSLYFED OFFICIALS SEE CORE PCE INFLATION OF 3.4% IN DEC 26, 2.5% IN DEC 27infinityhedge
16 сент., 18:02
FOMC STATEMENTinfinityhedge
16 сент., 18:00
FED: UNANIMOUS 12-0 VOTE ON POLICY ACTIONFED: DROPS REFERENCE TO SUPPLY SHOCKS DRIVING INFLATIONFED: NOW SAYS POLICY ACTION WILL SUPPORT TIMELIER RETURN TO 2 PERCENT GOALFED: REPLACES MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT WITH GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSinfinityhedge
16 сент., 18:00
FED RAISES INTEREST RATEinfinityhedge
15 сент., 18:36
CRYPTO 'CLARITY ACT' ODDS DROPS BELOW 10% ON POLYMARKET FOR THE FIRST TIME: INFINITYHEDGEinfinityhedge
15 сент., 16:33изменён
DEMOCRATS CLARITY ACT COUNTERPROPOSAL WHICH REPUBLICANS REJECTED EARLIERinfinityhedge
15 сент., 13:38изменён
DEMOCRATS CLARITY ACT COUNTER-OFFER REJECTED BY REPUBLICANS: PUNCHBOWLSEN LUMMIS SPOKESPERSON SAID DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT BUDGED AN INCHinfinityhedge
15 сент., 08:11
BOND SELLOFF DEEPENSUS10Y YIELDS RISE ABOVE 5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007US30Y YIELDS ABOVE 5.4%, HIGHEST SINCE 2004JAPAN 10Y YIELD RISES TO 3%, HIGHEST SINCE 1996UK10Y YIELDS RISE ABOVE 5.4%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007FRANCE 10Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 4.5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2008GERMANY 10Y YIELD RISES TO 3.5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2009: INFINITYHEDGEinfinityhedge
11 сент., 12:33изменён
US 30-YEAR YIELD RISES ABOVE 5.39%, HIGHEST SINCE 2004TRADERS NOW SEE ABOUT A 90% CHANCE OF A FED RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK AFTER CPI DATAinfinityhedge
11 сент., 12:30
US AUG CPI RISES 0.4% M/M (EST. +0.4%) US AUG CPI RISES 3.4% Y/Y (EST. +3.4%) US AUG CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M (EST. +0.2%) US AUG CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y (EST. +2.4%)infinityhedge
11 сент., 10:24изменён
CPI DAY: INFINITYHEDGEMedian Forecast: headline: 0.38% vs 0.07% M/M prev. headline: 3.4% vs 3.4% Y/Y Core CPI: 0.22% vs 0.22% M/M Core CPI: 2.4% vs 2.5% Y/YCore MoM read: > 0.25%: hot 0.20 to 0.25%: in-line < 0.20%: coolNomura: ..pace of increase in consumer electronic prices appears to have slowed in Aug... This suggests inflationary pressure from global shortages of semiconductors was limited.Citi: we expect our forecast for 0.18%MoM increase: the yoy reading falling to 2.3% will be a clear enough slowing in inflation that Fed officials will leave rates unchanged.GS: - Looking beyond Aug, we expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.2% for the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories and shrinking contributions from tariff related price increases, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associatedinfinityhedge
10 сент., 12:43
US 30Y YIELD RISES ABOVE 5.34%, ERASES BESSENT'S INTERVENTION DROPUS10Y YIELD HITS 4.9%, HIGHEST SINCE NOV 2023: INFINITYHEDGEUS02Y YIELD CLIMBS ABOVE 4.5%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2024TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN FED RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER AFTER PPI DATAOIL > 100
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