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QCP Broadcast
21 сент., 10:10
QCP Market Colour, 21 September 2026Bitcoin is arming up for a breakout. It closed the week above its 50-week moving average, up 29% over the past 35 days, with the tide turning as the traditional war trade loses its grip despite continued U.S.-Iran tensions.The legislative backdrop is doing some of the work. The American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) has cleared the House Financial Services Committee, one step from a full House vote, and would establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve if passed. Timing is now the variable: prediction markets price roughly a 90% chance of Democrats taking the House in the midterms, and with this Congress ending on 2 January 2027, a floor vote before then would materially improve ARMA's near-term path.The options tape is loaded. Front-end vols remain elevated into a seasonally strong month, and around 43% of BTC open interest sits in Friday'sQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP September 21, 2026BTC Arms Up for a Breakout Crypto remains relatively well bid following an eventful week, with momentum potentially supported by progress on the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA). The bill has advanced through the U.S. House Committee on Financial…QCP Broadcast
18 сент., 10:15
QCP Market Colour, 18 September 2026Bitcoin took two direct hits inside 48 hours and came out bid. The CLARITY Act's 49–50 cloture failure on Tuesday pushed BTC to a monthly low near $75,900, the Fed hiked the following afternoon, and spot recovered to $77,000 before settling around $76,500.The flows are the more interesting part. Spot ETFs bled $450m on the 15th and $296m on the 16th, IBIT shedding $144m of it. Then on the 17th the tape turned: $159m of net inflows with IBIT taking $184m. The outflows bottomed on the hike itself, and the day after it the largest fund was a buyer.The Fed's 25bp was priced above 90%, so Warsh was the story. Inflation remains "too high", conditions are not "restrictive", and he framed the move as "removing a dose of policy accommodation" before declining to give any forward guidance. The committee also raised its longer-run neutral estimate to 3.25%QCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP September 18, 2026Two Shocks, One Standing Bid Bitcoin absorbed two policy shocks within 48 hours. The Senate’s failed CLARITY Act cloture vote on Tuesday pushed Bitcoin 4% lower to $75,900. The Fed’s 25bp rate increase the following afternoon saw spot recover to $77,000,…QCP Broadcast
14 сент., 10:27
QCP Market Colour, 14 September 2026August CPI showed 0.4% headline month-on-month and 0.3% core month-on-month, above the 0.2% consensus. Bitcoin fell to $76,700 on the release before recovering to $77,600, suggesting markets have largely absorbed the 25 basis point hike scenario. The real question is how the Fed frames the move and what it signals about future tightening.Institutional flows diverged: Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows over the holiday week, though Friday's redemptions slowed significantly. Ethereum ETFs attracted inflows including $216.4 million Friday, pointing to selective demand despite softer conditions. Volatility remains subdued with the curve upward-sloping and positioning hedged ahead of the decision.This week's FOMC meeting is critical. The question is whether the Committee frames this hike as insurance against inflation or signals a longer tighteningQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP September 14, 2026The Fed’s Inflation and Credibility Test August CPI data arrived with mixed signals ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, leaving the annual inflation rate unchanged at 3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI…QCP Broadcast
11 сент., 10:08
QCP Market Colour, 11 September 2026Bitcoin has retraced from $82,000 highs to trade near $77,000, giving back the entire rally as long-dated Treasury yields have risen sharply. Treasury Secretary Bessent's escalating intervention efforts have failed to stem the move. After tripling Wednesday's buyback operation to $6 billion, Thursday's auction took only $5.19 billion on offer—traders read it as Treasury stepping back. The 10-year cleared at 4.83%, the highest since 2007, while the 30-year broke through 5.3%.The composition of the yield move is the worst for Bitcoin: a 5% risk-free rate driven by policy tightening, not growth. It undercuts the Treasury liquidity narrative that carried BTC from $63,000 to $82,000. Institutional flows have turned sharply, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording three straight days of outflows—the first sustained redemption since August's $3.8 billion streak.QCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP September 11, 2026Betting Against the House Bitcoin heads into tonight’s CPI print on the back foot. Having tagged $82,000 last Thursday, spot has given back the entire move and sits near $77,000, down roughly 2% on both the week and the month. Yesterday’s dip to $76,500 was…QCP Broadcast
10 сент., 08:33
QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026Yen rallied 160 to 154 on BOJ normalisation, carry unwinds, softer dollar. Japan's Aug reserves fell $87.8bn—potential yen-purchase funding—alert to intervention risk. Prior support fresh, USDJPY upside faces structural resistance. BOJ shifting from accommodation to normalisation.PCE's spring spike looks energy-driven. Nondurables contributed 0.85pp of 1.24pp headline jump Feb-May, energy alone 0.89pp. By July, energy eased to 0.48pp. Headline relief real, core PCE sticky at 3.3%, keeping Fed focused on broadening price pressure.August +162k NFP beat consensus by 109k, June-July revised 55k. Labour resilient despite higher rates; three-month avg 71k >> consensus. Soft-landing trade intact; household financing costs elevated.Hormuz flows constrained, SPR at historic lows (286.6mb), geopolitical premium locked in.If labour stays firm andQCP Broadcast
7 сент., 10:20изменён
QCP Market Colour, 7 September 2026August's employment report delivered a significant upside surprise at 162,000 jobs added versus expectations of 55,000—a sharp rebound from July's revised gain of 21,000. The stronger print eased concerns around labour-market weakness and shifted attention firmly back toward inflation ahead of September's FOMC meeting.Crypto remained well supported through the week. Bitcoin traded above $82,000 early before pulling back to $79,300, while Ethereum remained around $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $770 million in net inflows across September 1-4, though the pattern of Monday's outflow followed by Wednesday's sizeable inflow suggests institutional positioning ahead of key data rather than sustained new-capital conviction.Technical resistance persists: Bitcoin faces headwinds at $80,000-$82,000, while Ethereum encounters selling above $2,500. ThisQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP September 7, 2026Labour Strength Shifts Focus to Inflation August’s employment report delivered a significant upside surprise, recording 162,000 jobs added against expectations of 55,000—a sharp rebound from July’s revised gain of 21,000. The stronger print eased concerns…QCP Broadcast
4 сент., 10:52
QCP Market Colour, 4 September 2026One week after Jackson Hole, the focus has shifted from Warsh’s message to whether the hawkish repricing can hold.Warsh made clear that the Fed’s predominant focus remains on prices, but softer labour data and Waller’s comments have since brought the September debate back towards hold versus hike.At the same time, Treasury’s first expanded long-end buyback begins on 9 September, just as another 3-, 10- and 30-year auction cluster hits the market. That keeps the long end firmly in focus alongside CPI next week.For crypto, spot demand has returned. BTC has traded between roughly $76,700 and $81,500 this week, while ETF flows rebounded sharply on Thursday after earlier outflows. Leverage also remains contained, suggesting the current constraint is more about spot supply around the highs than an overcrowded long position.Tonight’s payrolls reportQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP September 4, 2026The Credibility Test, One Week On Last week’s question was how Warsh would balance inflation against financial conditions. His answer was clear: “the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices,” accompanied by a refusal to offer forward guidance.…QCP Broadcast
3 сент., 07:03изменён
QCP Macro Themes - 3 September 2026Kevin Warsh locked in the Fed's hawkish stance: 2% PCE is fixed, credibility is the mission. With headline PCE at 3.7%, no near-term cut advocates remain visible and forward guidance is deliberately reduced. The hawkish bloc is broader than dissent counts suggest.Treasury doubled long-end buybacks to $4bn quarterly, but that's just 0.013% of the $31.5tn market—liquidity, not pivot. Heavy long-dated IG issuance adds pressure; tech now 38% of 10Y+ supply.Physical risk hardened. Only one tanker crossed Hormuz post-strikes; SPR fell to 286.6mb (Nov 1982 low), 13.4mb below the stress zone. Wheat, corn, sugar rallied on supply concerns.BTC rallied on short covering, not fresh leverage. ETF inflows near 95th percentile provide real spot demand, but MSTR funded accumulation via equity issuance—caution on the leverage story.With policy guidance scarceQCP Broadcast
28 авг., 10:36
QCP Market Colour, 28 August 2026$BTC heads into Jackson Hole around 80k, but tonight’s focus extends beyond whether Fed Chair Warsh sounds relatively hawkish or dovish.July PCE showed headline inflation at 3.7% YoY and core at 3.3%, leaving inflation above the Fed’s objective. At the same time, July’s 9–3 FOMC vote revealed a meaningful split, with three policymakers preferring a 25bp hike. Markets currently assign around a 35% probability to a September increase.The backdrop has been complicated further by the long end. Treasury’s decision to increase liquidity-support buybacks initially pushed longer-dated yields lower, highlighting how Treasury-market liquidity can feed through to broader financial conditions.Meanwhile, risk appetite remains supported by Nvidia’s latest results: revenue reached $96.2bn and Data Center sales rose 117% YoY, reinforcing continued AIQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP August 28, 2026The Credibility Test BTC heads into Jackson Hole around 80k, but the focus extends beyond whether Fed Chair Warsh sounds relatively hawkish or dovish. Markets are also assessing how the Fed balances persistent inflation against broader financial conditions…QCP Broadcast
27 авг., 03:45
QCP Macro Themes - 27 August 2026The Fed’s 9–3 hold marked its first triple-hawkish dissent since September 2016. The minutes and support from two non-voters suggest the hawkish bloc is broader than the tally, with further tightening possible if inflation stalls.Treasury doubled long-end buybacks from $2bn to $4bn per operation and increased them from two to four per quarter. Yields fell, but each operation represents just 0.013% of the $31.5tn Treasury market.Physical risks are rising. Only two tankers crossed Hormuz on 25 August, while the SPR has fallen to 289.7mb, below its stress threshold.In crypto, falling open interest points to short covering, while strong ETF inflows provide genuine spot demand. Strategy raised $2.01bn but bought no BTC for a second week, leaving holdings flat at 840,447.With liquidity support limited, is this rally becoming structural—or stillQCP Broadcast
24 авг., 09:56
QCP Market Colour, 24 August 2026$BTC recorded its strongest week since March 2024, briefly reaching approximately 79.5k after gaining more than 20%.The move coincided with a sharp shift in rates. After the US 30-year Treasury yield approached 5.3%, its highest since 2007, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation from 9 September. Long yields initially fell and the dollar weakened, while BTC and gold moved higher.Positioning helped accelerate the initial breakout, but spot participation subsequently strengthened. US-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracted around $2.6bn combined last week, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.Attention now shifts to three different parts of the macro picture: PCE for inflation, Nvidia earnings for the AI investment cycle, and Fed Chair Warsh's firstQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP August 24, 2026Treasury Reprices the Rally BTC recorded its strongest week since March 2024, climbing more than 20% and briefly reaching approximately 79.5k on Friday. The move followed a sharp shift in the rates backdrop after the US 30-year Treasury yield approached 5.3%…QCP Broadcast
21 авг., 10:24
QCP Market Colour, 21 August 2026Duration is back at the centre of the crypto conversation.$BTC has moved from roughly 64k to towards 76k in four sessions, with the breakout coinciding with a sharp shift in long-end rates. After the US 30-year Treasury yield reached around 5.33%, its highest since 2007, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation from 9 September.The initial BTC move appears to have been driven largely by short covering. QCP desk data show aggressive perpetual buying running well ahead of spot on Wednesday while open interest remained broadly unchanged. Leverage then rebuilt as price extended on Thursday.Spot demand followed. US spot BTC ETFs recorded $517m of net inflows on Wednesday, their strongest day since May, while perpetual funding has since moderated from its localQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP August 21, 2026Duration Strikes Back BTC has moved from roughly 64k to towards 76k in four sessions, with the breakout coinciding with an unusual shift in the rates backdrop. After the global duration sell-off pushed the US 30-year Treasury yield to around 5.33%, its highest…QCP Broadcast
19 авг., 10:04
QCP Macro Themes - 19 August 2026China’s crude imports rebounded 22% MoM to 8.41 mb/d in July as Hormuz partially reopened and supply shifted toward Russia and pipelines, but volumes remain 24% below last year. Inventories have also fallen from 1.40bn barrels in December to 1.20bn in July.The drawdown is accelerating, with stocks down ~940k b/d, including a 41mb drop in June. Hormuz flows also remain fragile after the MOU expiry.China is also building reserves in gold. The PBOC bought 19.9 tonnes in July—its largest since Oct 2023—lifting holdings to 2,366 tonnes, as gold traded ~30% below its January peak.Yet options markets price little near-term stress. SPY skew sits at the 86th percentile and QQQ at the 84th, making puts unusually cheap versus calls, even as longer-dated crash protection remains bid.When near-term protection is this cheap but long-dated insurance is stillQCP Broadcast
17 авг., 10:45
QCP Market Colour, 17 August 2026BTC remains near the lower end of its recent range as softer US growth data compete with persistently elevated energy prices.Friday's data showed preliminary consumer sentiment falling to 51.0, while July retail sales declined 0.6%, their largest monthly drop in more than a year. Together with softer labour data, that has helped bring the market-implied probability of a September Fed hike down to roughly 30%.Oil is complicating that picture. Brent remains near $89 as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz persists, keeping an energy-driven inflation risk in the background.For crypto, the theme remains resilience without momentum. BTC is holding around 63k and has avoided a larger breakdown, but rallies continue to struggle for sustained follow-through. Options tell a similar story, with one-week implied volatility around 26% against realisedQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP August 17, 2026Soft Data, Firm Oil US equities ended Friday modestly lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.17%, the Nasdaq Composite off 0.28% and the Dow falling around 108 points. The more notable signal came from the economic data. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer…QCP Broadcast
14 авг., 11:04
QCP Market Colour, 14 August 2026BTC has moved back towards 63k, returning to the lower end of its recent range despite a softer US inflation backdrop. July CPI eased to 3.4% YoY, core inflation moderated to 2.5%, and PPI was flat on the month — but crypto's response has remained muted.That leaves the theme from last week largely intact: resilience without momentum. BTC has continued to absorb a weaker labour market, geopolitical uncertainty and changing corporate treasury flows without a sustained breakdown, but supportive macro data have yet to produce lasting follow-through. Policy is also moving on two tracks. The CLARITY Act has been pushed beyond the August recess, while the SEC and US banking regulators continue to develop frameworks around crypto capital raising and tokenized securities.Meanwhile, Strategy disclosed another 1,690 BTC sale last week, reinforcing thatQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP August 14, 2026Range Tested, Not Broken BTC has moved back towards 63k, giving up an earlier push towards 64k and returning to the lower end of its recent range. The move has not been accompanied by a single dominant crypto-specific catalyst. Instead, digital assets continue…QCP Broadcast
12 авг., 12:04
QCP Macro Themes - 12 August 2026The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.Markets still assign a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled.That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing that policymakers are prepared toQCP Broadcast
7 авг., 10:51
QCP Market Colour, 7 August 2026BTC has recovered from around 62.5k at the start of the week to trade back near 64k. The move stands out less for its momentum than for what the market has absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $105m, while reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have risen to around $110m. Neither event resulted in a sustained break lower.Options markets reflect a similar lack of panic. Front-end implied volatility remains near the lower end of its recent range and downside skew has moderated, even as the macro backdrop stays mixed.US manufacturing strengthened in July, but labour indicators have softened. JOLTS openings fell to 7.36m and ADP payrolls rose by only 44k, putting today's US employment report firmly in focus. Meanwhile, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent back above $83.Japan remains another importantQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP August 7, 2026Bad News, No Breakdown BTC has recovered from around 62.5k at the start of the week to trade back near 64k. The move is notable less for its momentum than for what the market has absorbed along the way. Strategy disclosed the sale of 1,638 BTC for approximately…QCP Broadcast
5 авг., 12:04
QCP Macro Themes - 5 August 2026The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.Markets are still assigning a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled.That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing the signal thatQCP Broadcast
3 авг., 10:24
QCP Market Colour, 3 August 2026The US has joined Japan in a rare coordinated effort to support the yen, with the New York Fed purchasing yen on behalf of the US Treasury during Friday’s operation. It was the first coordinated US–Japan FX intervention since 2011 and the first joint operation specifically supporting the yen since 1998.The timing puts the long end of the Treasury curve firmly in focus. The 30-year yield reached approximately 5.27% on Friday, its highest since 2007, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate remained near 2.28%. That has kept attention on the role of issuance, investor demand and cross-border flows alongside inflation expectations.For crypto, a rapid yen appreciation can contribute to the unwinding of yen-funded positions and spill over into broader risk assets. However, a more stable currency could also reduce the need for repeated intervention andQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP August 3, 2026Fiscal Guidance: The New Forward Guidance The US has joined Japan in a coordinated effort to support the yen. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York purchased yen on behalf of the US Treasury during Friday’s operation, alongside intervention by Japan’s Ministry…QCP Broadcast
31 июл., 09:59
QCP Market Colour, 31 July 2026The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but three dissents in favour of a hike and Chair Warsh’s move away from explicit forward guidance gave the decision a hawkish tone. Markets initially responded by reassessing the path for rates. US equities sold off following the announcement before rebounding as earnings returned to the foreground, led by a sharp rally in Microsoft. BTC also moved lower around the meeting before stabilising near 64k.The economic picture remains mixed. Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5% annualised, but consumer spending and underlying domestic demand remained resilient. Core PCE held at 3.3% year on year, keeping the Fed’s focus firmly on inflation.Asia added another source of volatility. The KOSPI rebounded a record 17.9% on Friday after falling more than 17% earlier in the week, highlighting the growing links between AI equities, regionalQCP GroupQCP Market Colour - QCP July 31, 2026A Hawkish Hold The Federal Reserve left its target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, but the decision carried a more hawkish tone than the headline suggested. The 9–3 vote included dissents from Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, who…
