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Venture Capital
13 Nov, 16:04
⚠️ Israel Raises Readiness Over IranKAN reported on 11 November that Israel’s security cabinet instructed the Israel Defense Forces to increase readiness for a possible strike on Iran. The broadcaster said the steps could lead to activity that risks bringing about war.There is no official confirmation of an imminent attack. Israel Katz said Israel’s security is “not in transition,” while Gadi Eisenkot urged restraint until a new government is sworn in.The public US and Iranian positions remain far apart. Tehran says the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Washington lifts the blockade and oil sanctions, releases frozen assets, and ends the war on all fronts. Washington has rejected some demands and plans to continue economic pressure.The US formed Task Force Iron Gate, a Tampa-based staff of about 20 people, but no new in-theater deployment was reported. Two US carriers were in the Arabian Sea, and no forward-deployed bombers were reported in the first week of November.The first public test is Sunday’s cabinet meeting. I expect neither Israel nor the US Defense Department to announce that a new major strike on Iran has been authorized or begun by then.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
13 Nov, 14:29
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12 Nov, 16:01
✨ The Missing Starlink Compute NumberIn April, Starlink’s chips reportedly turned just 11% of peak computing power into useful training. Engineering chief Michael Nicolls called that “embarrassingly low” and set a 50% target.Elon says the Grok stack has since been rewritten in C and C++, with pre-training written primarily by the Starlink software team and “probably best in industry.”The key test is utilization across the 220,000 Nvidia GB300 chips Elon says each training hall holds. A figure above 45% would exceed the industry range cited by Business Insider. My prediction is that SpaceX or Elon will not publish the number by 31st December 2026.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
12 Nov, 10:00
🖥 Anthropic Tests Microsoft’s AI SpendingAnthropic launched Claude Sheets, a spreadsheet tool resembling Excel, plus whiteboard and office products. Microsoft shares fell 2.2% Tuesday, reviving fears that AI-native software could pressure established vendors. Microsoft is also one of 7 companies set to invest through Anthropic’s $26 billion private placement.Microsoft’s edge is cash flow. It generated $18.6 billion in free cash flow last quarter, even after $7.4 billion of finance leases. Meta, Oracle, Alphabet, and Amazon were negative in their latest quarters, with Amazon burning $34.8 billion.The previous Anthropic selloff reversed. A February purchase would have returned 29.7% by Tuesday versus 17.5% for the software ETF, though Microsoft later fell 14.2%. Another decline remains possible, with shares just 4% below their record close.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
11 Nov, 16:02
🇺🇸 Affordability Is the Main Economic RiskThe US entered the Trump presidency with a booming stock market, relatively lower inflation, and an AI-driven technological revolution. Now, markets are again discussing whether the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates.Trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the war with Iran have added pressure to energy prices and inflation. The main issue is affordability, with housing, groceries, insurance, and other essentials already out of reach for many Americans. Higher rates would make buying a first home even harder.There is still time to change course by ending conflicts, stabilizing trade policy, and lowering housing and energy costs. The US has significant economic potential, but the focus needs to shift toward making life more affordable.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
11 Nov, 07:03
✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
10 Nov, 13:02
📈 The S&P 500 Is Mostly a Tech BetThe market has reached 28 record highs this year, but 9 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are lagging. Technology represents nearly 40% of the index and delivered roughly 12 of the S&P 500’s 13.6-point return, according to Silvia Insights.Energy is also outperforming, but its roughly 3% index weight means the effect is limited. Excluding technology and energy, the median sector is up barely 1% year-to-date, while 4 of the 9 sectors are negative. Buying the broad market is therefore largely a bet on a small group of technology leaders.That concentration carries risk if mega-cap technology weakens, but the sector is cheaper than it has been in years. Tatiana Darie, a Bloomberg macro strategist, said on Full Signal that the spread between the S&P 500 and information technology sector’s forward P/E ratios has returned to levels last seen at the start of the pandemic. Nvidia’s market capitalization was then $144 billion. It is now nearing $6 trillion. The broad market is not necessarily a bad trade, but it is mostly one trade.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
9 Nov, 16:02
📉 Stocks and the Economy Are DivergingThe US stock market is under heavy pressure, but the economic outlook remains more resilient. Goldman Sachs forecasts 2.4% real GDP growth in 2027, slightly above the 2.3% expected this year. Markets are pricing only a 20% probability of a US recession next year.With real growth near 2% to 2.5% and one-year inflation expectations at 2.1%, nominal GDP growth could remain below 4.5% in 2027. If inflation continues to cool, slower nominal growth could reduce upward pressure on Treasury yields and support equities.The outlook is not risk-free. Weaker growth, a softer labor market, or another inflation shock could change it quickly. A stock market selloff and an economic recession are different things.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
22 Sept, 15:00
💵 Schwab Cash Rates ComparedOn 21st September 2026, $10,000 in Schwab’s Bank Sweep at 0.01% would earn about $1 yearly. The same amount in managed portfolios’ cash allocation at 3.29% would earn about $329, before tax and account costs.Deposit insurance covers eligible bank deposits within limits, but does not set rates. The 3.29% applies only to cash in Schwab Intelligent Portfolios, not the full portfolio, which carries market risk and expenses.The Fed’s 3.75% to 4% target range took effect on 16 September, after the 3.29% rate began on 1 September. Intelligent Portfolios resets monthly. Ordinary cash rates can change at Schwab’s discretion.Schwab One Interest may pay $0 for a day when interest is below half a cent. At 0.01% on $10,000, daily interest is about 0.27 cents. The 15th October 2026 expectation is 0.01% for ordinary cash and aboveVenture Capital
22 Sept, 12:00
🍏 Apple Pay Eyes StablecoinsApple, with over 2 billion users, is hiring an Apple Pay strategy lead with stablecoin and blockchain experience.That could bring stablecoins into one of the world's largest payment ecosystems.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
22 Sept, 09:00
Ⓜ️ Meta’s Narrative Turns on PriceMeta shows how quickly the market can change its narrative once the stock starts working. The same capex, AI spending, and installed base that were ignored suddenly look like advantages.Muse was the turning point. Meta showed a consumer AI product with clear monetization through paid tiers, while plugging the agent into apps and services people already use.The lesson is to build conviction before the story feels obvious, so the position is in place before everyone else pays up for the same thesis.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
21 Sept, 15:01
🛢 Oil Inventories Near Operational FloorGlobal oil inventories are projected to hit their operational floor of 6.8 billion barrels this month if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, according to JPMorgan.Below that level, pipelines cannot maintain pressure and refineries start failing, regardless of the oil price. It would be the first time in recorded history that physical oil availability, not just price, becomes the concern.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
21 Sept, 12:01
🕊 A Ceasefire With a Missing PartyPublished by Oman on 6th May 2025, the one-sentence deal bars Houthi and US attacks on each other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Saudi Arabia is not mentioned, while Israel was excluded by the Houthis.The arrangement has held: no American bomb has fallen since then, and no confirmed Houthi strike on a US target has been recorded. US officials say ships still targeted are Saudi.That leaves a policy contradiction. More than 100 US military personnel are reportedly in Saudi Arabia, providing targeting data to aircraft fighting the Houthis.The coalition said it destroyed Friday’s missile, but AFP saw a burning Aramco-branded fuel tank and the Journal reported hits to jet-fuel facilities. The cause remains unconfirmed, but the strike reached Riyadh for the first time since MarchVenture Capital
21 Sept, 06:01
A 1964 prediction about our AI future.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
20 Sept, 15:00
📉 Oracle’s Filings Under ScrutinyMichael Burry says Big Tech filings may not show the full scale of AI commitments. Oracle is his main example, with $288B in leases it has not started paying.🖱️ CEOs sign filings under oath, and lying on them is a crime.🖱️ The filings do not show how much AI demand comes from companies buying each other’s products.🖱️ Oracle’s 121% growth figure includes this type of revenue, without disclosing how much.🖱️ Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle made $400B in profit last year, a fraction of their committed spending.Burry is not calling it fraud. His point is that the truth may not be in the filings.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
20 Sept, 12:01
Trump says he is creating an AI Force and will appoint an AI czar. The U.S. will not slow or stifle AI development.AI could eventually account for 25% of U.S. GDP.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
20 Sept, 09:00
❤️🔥 Coffee Prices Fall 20%Coffee prices are down 20% this year as supply exceeds demand for the first time in 4 years.Brazil, the world's top coffee producer, is behind the surplus, with exports up 40% from a year ago.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
19 Sept, 09:01
🥋 BOJ Signals Further Rate HikesThe Bank of Japan voted 7-2 to raise rates to 1.25%. Further hikes will depend on activity, prices, and financial conditions.Underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target as wage growth, rising expectations, a weak yen, higher oil prices, and strong AI-related demand push up selling prices.The economy is recovering moderately, supported by employment, income growth, and AI-related demand. CPI is expected to move clearly above 2% from the second half of FY2026, while financial conditions remain accommodative.Governor Ueda’s remarks will be watched for clues on the timing and pace of further hikes.✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
19 Sept, 06:00
“You don't need a lot of brains in this business…What you do need is emotional stability.You have to be able to think independently: when you come to a conclusion, you have to really not care what other people say and just follow the facts and your reasoning.”Warren Buffett✔️ @ventureVenture Capital
18 Sept, 15:02
☺️ AMD Chip PricesAMD is reportedly preparing to raise chip prices by ~10% as higher TSM wafer costs flow through to customers.The increases are expected to hit AI accelerators and consumer GPUs in Q4, as advanced-node manufacturing gets more expensive.✔️ @venture
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